Reluctant Shoppers Hold Back Recovery

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主要零售商公布美国消费者还在继续按兵不动，这给美国复苏的持久性蒙上了阴影，也凸显出海外需求对世界经济重回健康状态的重要性。Reuters洛杉矶一家超市的收银员在检查百元美钞真伪各类零售商都提供了不容乐观的报告。折扣零售商Target Corp.公布截至7月份当季的同店销售额比上年同期下降了6.2%，奢侈品零售商Saks Inc.公布同期同店销售额下降了15.5%，因购物者只购买基本必需物品。建筑材料连锁店家得宝(Home Depot)预计截至7月份当季的零售额将下降9.1%，公司维持了今年销售额将下降9%的预期。零售业管理人士说，他们预计明年春季前情况难有改观。一些商店将削减库存的希望寄托在了返校和圣诞季节。家得宝首席执行长布雷克(Frank Blake)周二对投资者说，他预计2010年下半年之前同店销售额难以实现增长。他说，我们仍对止赎活动居高不下感到担忧，我们认为这将继续给房地产市场带来压力。美国消费者似乎对大萧条以来最为严重经济衰退深感惊惶，加之受到失业工资停滞和贷款紧缩的打击，他们将支出仅限定在基本生活用品上面。经济学家也将美国家庭储蓄的增长视为漫长节俭期的开始。这些零售商的业绩报告让人们再次意识到，美国复苏的关键还是要靠消费者。消费支出占美国经济中总需求的大约70%。多数经济学家预计，随着美国企业重建已耗尽的库存和房地产市场的稳定，美国经济今年下半年将以温和的速度恢复增长。预计经济下半年复苏的经济学家认为，全球制造业正在复苏，最近的报告也显示，法国德国和日本等经济体在第二季度实现了扩张。美国商务部本月初表示，继前一月增长1.6%之后，美国6月份的出口又比5月份增长了1.9%。不过，美国消费者却可能会拖后腿。在本月对经济学家的调查中，《华尔街日报》询问持续的经济增长是否需要消费支出的大幅增加。在43位经济学家中，有60%都给出了肯定的回答。金融研究机构Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall说，不仅是就业率下降，许多人还面临着工资冻结和其它缩减措施。这将大大拖累未来的消费支出。很少的几个亮点之一是政府“旧车换现金”计划推动下的汽车销售回升。通用汽车(General Motors)周二表示，计划把第三和第四季度生产计划上调6万辆；此前福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)上周宣布增产。与此同时，运营TJMaxx连锁店的TJX Cos.表示，季度销售额增长40%。此前，沃尔玛(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)上周公布了令人失望的业绩，美国同店销售额下滑1.2%。同样是在上周，商务部宣布包括各类零售商在内的7月份零售额在增长两个月后出现下滑。零售商们通过控制支出和减少库存来提高利润率。为避免再次发生类似去年的大规模冲减，零售商Neiman Marcus表示，已经将采购减少了25%。这样的举措周二对投资者带来积极影响，一些人曾担心业绩本会更糟糕。Target和Saks都公布了小于预期的利润降幅，两家公司股价随后分别涨了7.6%和6.9%。今年以来，两家公司的股价分别累计上涨了28%和30.6%。不过如果消费者对缺少选择感到失望，或等到有折扣才会买东西的话，库存的减少和折扣力度的减弱可能会带来负面影响。Target首席执行长斯泰因哈费尔(Gregg Steinhafel)周二对投资者说，消费者对降价促销变得更加敏感，也就是说会对广告宣传中的折扣和使用优惠券做出反应。他说这种趋势不利于公司。收紧的消费信贷也带来了影响。Target认为，收紧的专属信用卡标准可能造成同店销售额下滑至多0.5个百分点。该公司说，总销售额中约有三分之一是用信用卡付的帐。美联储本周早些时候说，7月份对银行的一项调查显示放贷标准持续收紧，消费者对借贷的兴趣降低。约有三分之一的银行说，自4月份以来他们收紧了信用卡和其他消费贷款的标准。没有银行表示放宽了标准。美国家庭也开始重视过去两年来财富的大幅下滑。2007年第二季度到2009年第一季度（可以获得的最新美联储数据），在楼市和股市双双下跌的情况下，家庭净资产萎缩了22%。这给了美国人更大的动力，让他们存钱来弥补帐面损失。经济学家们预计，由于库存水平很低，下个月企业支出将推动经济复苏。Investment Technology Group首席经济学家巴贝拉(Robert Barbera)说，生产和库存的大幅下滑是可以逆转的，原因是降幅远远超过了应对消费支出减弱所需要的程度。他说，今年下半年将从可观的库存恢复中获益。ANN ZIMMERMAN / SARA MURRAY（更新完成）相关阅读美国经济复苏的三种可能：快慢短 2009-08-18美国经济复苏导致贸易逆差重新增大 2009-08-12美国失业速度放缓 复苏仍面压力 2009-08-06美国储蓄率上升或削弱经济复苏力度 2009-08-04盖特纳：不担忧中国密切关注美国赤字 2009-07-29美国GDP数据或成经济复苏好兆头 2009-07-27 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月19日11:26', 'TGT'));Target Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：TGT


Major retailers reported that American consumers are continuing to hunker down, casting a cloud over the durability of the U.S. recovery and underscoring the importance of overseas demand in restoring the world economy to health.Retailers across the spectrum provided foreboding reports. Discounter Target Corp. reported that sales at stores open at least a year were down 6.2% from the year earlier in the quarter ending in July, while luxury purveyor Saks Inc. reported a 15.5% drop in same-store sales over the period as shoppers stuck to buying basics. Building-supply chain Home Depot saw total sales drop 9.1% in the quarter ending in July, and it reaffirmed expectations of a 9% sales drop this year.Retail executives said they don't expect conditions to improve until next spring. Some stores are girding for slow back-to-school and Christmas seasons by cutting inventories.Home Depot chief executive Frank Blake told investors Tuesday that he didn't expect a year-over-year increase in same-store sales until the second half of 2010. 'We remain concerned by the high level of foreclosure activity, which we believe continues to put pressure on the housing markets,' he said.American consumers appear so shaken by the worst recession since the Great Depression -- and so pinched by unemployment, stagnant wages and stingier lenders -- that they are reining in spending on all but basics. Economists also see an upturn in U.S. household saving as the beginning of a prolonged period of thrift.The retailers' reports serve as a reminder of how it will be consumers, foremost, who will fuel a sustained U.S. recovery. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of all demand in the U.S. economy.Most economists expect the economy to resume growing in the second half of this year at a modest pace, as U.S. businesses rebuild depleted inventories and the housing market stabilizes. Economists who see a second-half rebound point to a global-manufacturing revival and recent reports that the economies of France, Germany and Japan managed to expand in the second quarter. The Commerce Department said earlier this month that U.S. exports in June rose 1.9% from May after rising 1.6% the month before.But U.S. consumers could be the counterweight. In a survey of economists this month, The Wall Street Journal asked if a substantial increase in consumer spending was needed for sustained growth. Of the 43 economists who responded, 60% said yes.'Not only has employment fallen, but a lot people are facing salary freezes or other cutbacks,' said Lou Crandall, chief economist of financial-research firm Wrightson ICAP. 'That is going to have a significant drag on consumer spending going forward.'One of the few bright spots is the revival of auto sales, helped by the government's 'cash for clunkers' program. General Motors said Tuesday that it plans to add 60,000 vehicles to third- and fourth-quarter production plans, following announced increases at Ford Motor Co. last week.Meanwhile, TJX Cos., which operates the TJMaxx chain, said sales rose 4% over the quarter.Tuesday's results come on the heels of Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s disappointing report last week that same-store sales in the U.S. slid 1.2%. Also last week, the Commerce Department announced that July sales, which encompasses a wide swath of retailers, fell after two months of gains.Retailers are bolstering profit margins by reining in expenses and cutting inventories. Hoping to avoid the massive markdowns of last year, retailer Neiman Marcus said it has cut its purchases 25%.Such steps played well with investors Tuesday, some of whom feared even worse results. Target shares jumped 7.6% and Saks rose 6.9% after each reported a smaller profit decline than expected. Target shares are up 28% this year and Saks is up 30.6%.But slimmer inventories and less-aggressive discounting can backfire if customers are disappointed by a lack of choice or have been conditioned to wait for discounts before buying. Target's chief executive, Gregg Steinhafel, told investors Tuesday that consumers have become 'more promotionally sensitive' -- responding to advertised discounts and using coupons -- a dynamic he says is working against the company.Tighter consumer credit has also hurt. Target, which says about one-third of its overall sales come from credit cards, believes that tightening credit standards on its proprietary cards may have contributed as much as half a percentage point to its same-store sales declines.Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve said a July survey of banks found continued tightening of lending standards as well as a diminished appetite for borrowing among consumers. About one-third of banks said they tightened lending standards on credit cards and other consumer loans since April. No banks reported relaxing them.U.S. households are also reckoning with a large drop in wealth during the past two years. Between the second quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2009, the most recent for which Fed data is available, household net worth contracted by 22% amid drops in home prices and the stock market.That gives Americans a greater incentive to save to make up for their paper losses.Economists expect business spending to bolster the economy's recovery in the coming month, in light of extreme inventory-paring.'That wild plunge for production [and] inventories can reverse, because it went well beyond the kind of declines that would be necessary in reaction to weakening consumer spending,' said Robert Barbera, the Investment Technology Group's chief economist. 'The second half will be the beneficiary of a handsome pop in simply inventory restocking.'ANN ZIMMERMAN / SARA MURRAY

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