Project Management

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Project Management

文章目录

• Project Management
• • 1. Intruduction
  • 2. Organization
  • 3. Project Management Process
  • 4. Project Management Integration
  • 5.Project Scope Management
  • • 5.1 Plan Scope Management
    • 5.2 Collect Requirements
    • 5.3 Define Scope
    • 5.4 Create WBS
    • 5.5 Validate Scope
    • 5.6 Control Scope
  • 6. Project Schodule Management
  • • 6.2 Define Activity
    • 6.3 Sequene Activities
    • 6.4 Estimate Activity Duration
    • 6.5 Develop schedule
    • • Schedule compression
  • 7.Project cost management
  • • 7.1 Estimate Costs
    • 7.2 Determine Budget
    • 7.3 Control Costs: Earned Value Analysis
    • • EAC Forecast
  • 8.Project Quality Management
  • • 8.2 Manage Quality
  • 9.Project Resource Management
  • • 9.4 Develop Team
  • 10. Project Communication Management
  • 11. Project Stakeholder Management
  • 12. Project Risk Management
  • • 12.1 Plan Risk Management
    • 12.2 Identify Risks : How To Write a Risk Statement
    • 12.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 定性分析
    • 12.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 重大风险定量分析
    • 12.5 Plan Risk Responses
    • 12.6 Control Risks
  • 13 Project Procurement Management 项目采购管理
  • • 13.1 Plan Procurement Management
    • 13.2 Conduct Procurements

1. Intruduction

Project: A temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product, service, or result

Project Management: The application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements

2. Organization

Project organization: Organizations that constructed buildings, highways, and other infrastructure facilities, these types of organizations are certainly not serial production organizations, their work was classified as project.

3. Project Management Process

Two Categories of Project Processes:

1. Project Management Processes:These processes ensure the effective flow of the project throughout its life cycle. They encompass the tools and techniques involved in applying the skills and capabilities described in the Knowledge Areas.
2. Product-oriented Processes:These processes specify and create the project’s product. Typical example is as below.

4. Project Management Integration

Includes the processes and activities needed to identify, define, combine, unify, and coordinate the various processes and project management activities within the Project Management Process Groups.

包括识别，定义，组合，统一和协调各种项目管理流程组内的流程和项目管理活动

The Project Integration Management has seven processes included in it which are:

1. Develop Project Charter
2. Develop Project Management Plan
3. Direct and Manage Project Work
4. Manage Project Knowledge
5. Monitor and Control Project Work
6. Perform Integrated Change Control
7. Close Project or Phase

5.Project Scope Management

Includes the processes required to ensure that the project includes all the work required, and only the work required, to complete the project successfully

Scope can refer to Product Scope & Project Scope 范围分为产品范围和项目范围
Product scope: The features and functions that characterize a product, service, or result. 产品、服务或结果的特征和功能
Project scope: The work performed to deliver a product, service, or result with the specified features and functions. 为交付具有特定特性和功能的产品、服务或结果而进行的工作

The term “project scope” is sometimes viewed as including product scope
在项目管理的范围内，项目范围一般包含产品范围
• Don’t assume that requirements were determined before project began (not part of the project)
• Attitude to say no to unnecessary scope. It should go to project approval process

5.1 Plan Scope Management

The process of creating a scope management plan that documents how the project scope will be defined, validated, and controlled

创建范围管理计划的过程，该计划记录了如何定义、验证和控制项目范围

5.2 Collect Requirements

FACILITATED WORKSHOPS: Focused cross functional stakeholders.

便利研讨会：关注跨职能利益相关者

JAD: Joint application design

JAD 联合应用开发/设计:把开发人员和客户邀请到一起进行研究。
好处:随时听取客户意见。高效，如敏捷开发客户随时参加

QFD: Quality function development

QFD质量功能展开:常用于质量管理，首先要识别对于客户的关键因素，找到实现关键因素的动作和行为，把关键因素展开，实现在产品里。先找出最重要的给客户。

Multicriteria decision analysis

多原则决策分析：决定什么事情先做什么事情后做，什么重要什么不重要，从多个角度考虑，每个评判标准有不同的权重

Group Decision Making Techniques 团体决策

1. Unanimity 全票通过
2. Majority （>50%）大多数通过就可以
3. Plurality 最多人统一的方案，不需要超过半数
4. Dictatorship 独裁方式

5.3 Define Scope

Define scope:The process of developing a detailed description of the project and product.
产品分析:主要方法价值分析，用最少的成本识别产品功能，为每个功能确定价值，每个价值用最少的成本实现。

Project scope statement:The project scope statement is the description of the project scope, major deliverables,assumptions, and constraints. The project scope statement documents the entire scope, including project and product scope

项目范围说明书记录了整个项目范围，包括项目范围和产品范围。

1. Product scope description. Progressively elaborates the characteristics of the product, service, or result described in the project charter and requirements documentation.
2. Acceptance criteria. A set of conditions that is required to be met before
   deliverables are accepted.
3. Deliverable. Any unique and verifiable product, result, or capability to perform a service that is required.
4. Project exclusion. Generally identifies what is excluded from the project. Explicitly
   stating what is out of scope for the project helps to manage stakeholders’
   expectations.
5. Constraints. A limiting factor that affects the execution of a project or process.
6. Assumptions. A factor in the planning process that is considered to be true, real, or certain, without proof or demonstration.

产品范围说明书：对于产品要实现什么的界定，针对每一个功能要定义相应的接收标准、交付物、边界、限制条件和假设
假设条件：项目的未知情况，可能来源于外部或者内部，如疫情不会恶化，基于假设进行计划，如果假设条件不成立，计划就需要发生变化。有渐进明细，随着时间的推移越来越透明。
限制条件：来自于外部的，不好更改的，明确存在的，如出国旅游需要核酸，隔离。来自于道德方面，法律，花多少钱如果是项目组自己确定的，那属于目标，但如果是老板或者投资商确定的，属于显示条件

5.4 Create WBS

Work breakdown structure(WBS):The process of subdividing project deliverables and project work into smaller, more manageable components.

将项目可交付成果和项目工作划分为更小、更易于管理的部分的过程。

• WBS does not show dependencies
• Dividing work package into activities is part of the time management process (Define Activities)

以交付物为媒介进行验证和接受
面向交付物原则：以交付物为目标分解为很多component
百分百原则:这个项目所有的交付物要包含在WBS里

A deliverable-oriented grouping of project components that
organizes and defines the total scope of the project

一组以可交付成果为导向的项目组成部分，用以组织和界定项目的总体范围

Deliverable = any unique and verifiable product, result, or
capability to perform a service that must be produced to
complete a process, phase, or project

可交付成果=任何独特且可验证的产品，结果或具有执行完成流程，阶段或项目所必须提供的服务的能力

八十小时原则：一个底层的工作包分解为80小时的工作量比较合适，可以再细分。原则好管理。父子原则：同样的交付物不要出现多次。
父子原则：同样的交付物不要出现多次

For each WBS component the WBS Dictionary includes : Unique identifier [Code of account], Responsible organization, list of schedule milestones, …

WBS字典：WBS可以是张表或者图，但是不能描述的很详细，因此可以用单独的文档来描述一个工作包，叫做WBS字典，每个工作包有自己的标识，每个工作包的接受标准，做什么等等。这是一种信息的分层

注意：

1. should focus on tangible, deliverable items
2. work elements should never be duplicated in the WBS

好处:

1. defines all the work needed
2. subdivides a project into smaller work
   items
3. groups the work items logically

工程量很大，很久之后交付的项目可以划分阶段，按阶段来分

5.5 Validate Scope

The process of formalizing acceptance of the completed project deliverables.

范围核实：来自外部的检测，定义的范围是不是都完成了，是否达到接受标准。来自于内部的检验和测试是属于质量范畴。

5.6 Control Scope

The process of monitoring the status of the project and product scope
and managing changes to the scope baseline.

监控项目和产品范围的状态，以及管理范围基线变更的过程
来自于内部的变更，如技术人员添加个人想法
范围蔓延:来自于外部的范围变更(客户增加需求)

6. Project Schodule Management

Includes the processes required to manage timely completion of the project
WBS不用写动作，只写交付物。但是排schedule的时候需要action，谁去做，什么时间做，做什么，怎么样算完成

6.2 Define Activity

The process of identifying and documenting the specific actions to be performed to produce the project deliverables.

标识和记录要为产生项目可交付成果而执行的特定操作的过程。

6.3 Sequene Activities

The process of identifying and documenting relationships among the project activities.

对活动进行排序，活动之间有先后顺序
Precedence diagramming method(PDM):The process of identifying and documenting relationships among the project activities
优先关系图方法表示节点上的活动有四种依赖类型：结束到开始、结束到结束、开始到开始、开始到结束

Dependency:

1. Mandatory dependencies:强制性依赖关系，事物自然规律，无法改变，硬逻辑
2. Discretionary dependencies: 软逻辑，二者顺序关系本身不存在，是个人按照最佳实践制定的
3. Internal dependencies: 内部依赖，比如测试，完成了很多个模块，先测试哪个
4. External dependencies: 外部依赖，来自于外部的限制，如空气好是出去跑步的外部限制

6.4 Estimate Activity Duration

Analogous Estimating:use actual duration of previousactivity (historical) that has similarity

类比估算：根据以往项目规模进行估算

Parametric Estimating：

1. use statistical relationship between
   historical data and other variables (e.g.
   learning curve)
2. The result can become heuristics(experience based technique/rule of
   thumb)

参数估算：依据历史信息数值的估算，更加量化。不是总适用，如时间依赖活动。时间依赖活动，没有办法通过增加资源改善

Three Point estimates：
• O: Optimistic
• P: Pessimistic
• M: Most likely
• PERT formula = (P+4M+O)/6

平均估计时间

• Standard deviation of an activity : (P-O)/6

标准差

Production Rate:The Time to produce one unit of work product

单位时间完成工作的量

6.5 Develop schedule

1. Milestones charts(only identify scheduled start or completion of major deliverables and key external interfaces)

   向领导汇报计划方式，领导不关心花了多少精力

2. Bar chartss (with bar representing activities, show start and end dates as well as expected duration)

   表示到今天为止完成了多少，常用于组内项目进度沟通

3. Project schedule network diagram (with activity date information, show both the network logic and critical path)

   网络图：每个节点代表一个活动，箭头表示逻辑关系，把属性写上去，如ID，名称，活动描述，活动历时，用于展现critical path(关键路径)
   Critical Path Method(CPM)

7 Cells for an activity
ES：Earliest Start Date
EF：Earliest Finish Date

最早结束日期=最早开始日期+历时-1

DU：Duration
LS：Latest Start Date
LF：Latest Finish Date
FF：Free Float
TF：Total Float

EF=ES+DU-1
LS=LF-Du+1
ES=Max(Predecessor’s EF)+1
LF=min(Successor’s LS)-1
TF=LS-ES=LF-EF
TF指整个项目的灵活度
PF某一条路径和关键路径想比有多少灵活度
任务FF，任务本身有多少灵活度，不会影响下一个任务

关键路径特点，一旦delay，整个项目就会delay

1. Forward pass (going through all the paths of the network)
   ES, EF for each activity (EF = ES + Duration-1)
   Determination of the critical path (project duration)

关键任务的最早结束日期=最晚结束日期，最早开始日期=最晚开始日期

2. Backward pass (going through all the paths of the network)
   LF, LS for each activity (LS = LF – Duration+1 )
   Calculation of float for each activity and path

关键任务组成的路径叫做关键路径
排完任务之后，最长的一条路径就是关键路径
可能有多条关键路径，最好只有一条
Critical path=project duration

Schedule compression

1. Fast Tracking
   Doing activities in parallel. Fast tracking increases risks and requires
   more attention to communication

使用快速跟进的方法压缩任务，预防风险，做预案

2. Crashing
   Adding more resources to the critical path : moving resources from
   non-critical activities or adding extra resources to the activities from
   outside the project. Crashing almost always increase cost.

Resource leveling
资源平衡效果，各个资源使用均衡，大多数情况进度滞后，因为资源平衡一般是解决资源使用过度的情况

7.Project cost management

Includes the processes involved in planning, estimating, budgeting, and controlling costs so that the project can be completed within the approved budget
type of cost:

1. Varialbe costs

   可变成本，如物料，人员工资

2. Fixed costs

   固定成本，如一间房一个月的房租

3. Indirect costs

   不是为这个项目专门准备的，如打印机，老版的工资

4. Direct costs

   直接成本，专门为这个项目准备的

7.1 Estimate Costs

把完成项目所需资源货币化的过程

1. Analogous Estimating
2. Parametric Estimating
3. Three Point Estimates
4. Bottom Up

7.2 Determine Budget

The process of aggregating the estimated costs of individual activities or work packages to establish an authorized cost baseline.

做完成本估算，需要决定budget是多少，要找老板批示。建立基线

7.3 Control Costs: Earned Value Analysis

挣值分析：将成本分配给更小的单位处理
以activity为单位

Interpretation of basic EVM performance measures
1.Cost Performance Index (CPI)

成本绩效指标

2.Schedule Performance Index (SPI)

进度绩效指标

Terms and Formulas	Definition
Earned Value (EV)	As of today, what is the estimated value of the work actually accomplished? 到今天为止完成了多少价值的任务
Actual Cost (AC)	As of today, what is the actual cost incurred for the work accomplished? 到今天为止完成这些任务花了多少钱
Planned Value (PV)	As of today, what is the estimated value of work planned to be done? 到今天为止按照计划应该完成了多少价值的任务
Cost Variance (CV) = EV – AC	CV < 0: Negative is over budget CV > 0: Positive is under budget 成本偏差=挣到的-花掉的
Schedule Variance (SV)= EV –PV	SV < 0: Negative is behind schedule SV > 0: Positive is ahead schedule 进度偏差=挣到的价值-计划该挣的价值
Cost Performance Index (CPI) =EV/AC	CPI > 1: Under Budget CPI < 1: Over Budget 成本绩效指标=挣得价值/花的价值， 大于1可控，小于1不可控
Schedule Performance Index (SPI) = EV/PV	SPI > 1: Ahead of schedule SPI < 1: behind of schedule 进度绩效指标=挣得价值/计划挣的价值
Budget at completion (BAC)	How much did we BUDGET for the TOTAL project effort? BAC:一开始估算整个项目的预算
Estimate at Completion (EAC) = BAC / CPI	What do we currently expect the TOTAL project cost (a forecast)? EAC:现在估算整个项目的cost(CPI大于1，说明省钱，EAC就小)
Estimate to Complete (ETC)= EAC – AC	From this point on, how much MORE do we expect it to cost to finish the project (a forecast)? ETC:估算从现在开始还差多少可以完成项目
Variance at Completion (VAC)= BAC –EAC	As of today, how much over or under budget do we expect to be at the end of the project? VAC:成本偏差=最初预算-现在预算

EAC Forecast

1. EAC=BAC/CPI 简单计算
2. EAC=AC+（BAC-EV）偏差不典型时可用
3. EAC=AC+[(BAC-EV)/(Cumulative CPI+Cumulative SPI)] 成本表现不佳但有严格的完成日期要求
4. EAC=AC+ETC 基于新的评估

8.Project Quality Management

Project Quality Management includes the processes for incorporating the organization’s quality policy regarding planning, managing, and controlling project and product quality requirements in order to meet stakeholders’ objectives. Project Quality Management also supports continuous process improvement activities as undertaken on behalf of the performing organization.

管理质量：更多的管理工作过程
控制质量：更多针对产品和服务本身
显性质量：客户想要做什么，包括性能和功能
隐性质量：客户不提，但是达不到要求客户会不开心
Quality: the degree to which a set of inherent characteristics fulfill requirements. Quality level that fails to meet quality requirements is always a PROBLEM

质量：一组固有特性满足要求的程度。质量水平达不到质量要求总是一个问题

Grade: a category assigned to product or service having the same functional use but different technical characteristics. Low grade may not be a problem

等级：对具有相同功能用途但是技术特性不同的产品或服务进行的分类。低分可能不是问题
产品等级高低，是指功能够不够高级，但是低等级不是质量问题（如苹果和老人机）

Gold Plating: giving the customer extras

This practice is not recommended.要给客户最好的东西，但是现在更多人接受刚刚好满足要求

Marginal Analysis: looking for the point where…
benefits/revenue to be received from improving quality EQUALS the incremental cost to achieve that quality

从改进质量中获得的收益/收益等于实现该质量的增量成本

Just in Time (JIT): just when they are needed or just before they are needed.

It forces attention on quality practices.
零库存，接到订单再去生产

Total Quality Management (TQM)

Company & their employees focus on finding ways to continuous improve the
quality of their business practices & products.全员质量管理。

Deming Wheel:plan-do-check-act

先做计划，然后按照计划实施，一段时间后回头看做的好不好，检查后发现需要改进的点，制定改进方案，合到以前的计划里变成新计划去实施。

CMMI：软件成熟度模型，把软件成熟度分为5个等级

1. 初始阶段，项目有一个牛人在就好，不可控不可预知
2. 可复制阶段，项目经理厉害，别人请教告诉他也能做好
3. 最佳实践被推广，所有人按照流程做
4. 量化阶段，流程逐渐改善，使用数据分析项目
5. 持续优化

Agile: 敏捷开发

拥抱变化，迅速响应迭代

Plan Quality Management
The process of identifying quality requirements and/or standards for the project and its deliverables and documenting how the project will demonstrate compliance with quality requirements.

质量计划：明确质量需求和标准，如何更好的实现在项目里以达到项目的成功

Cost of quality

分为两类，符合性成本和不符合性成本
符合性成本：花钱让我的产品符合质量要求，如涉及代码审查
不符合性成本：错误已经发生，如写了bug，QA发现告诉研发更改，属于内部成本。bug留到客户那里，设计到产品的更换和罚款，属于外部failure

质量计划包括(但不止)：
The quality management plan may include but is not limited to the following
components:
• Quality standards that will be used by the project; //遵循什么质量标准
• Quality objectives of the project;发给客户前的标准，目标
• Quality roles and responsibilities;不同角色质量贡献，我要做什么
• Project deliverables and processes subject to quality review;质量review规定
• Quality control and quality management activities planned for the project;保证质量标准的活动
• Quality tools that will be used for the project; and质量工具
• Major procedures relevant for the project, such as dealing with nonconformance, corrective actions procedures, and continuous improvement procedures.发现不符合项怎么处理

8.2 Manage Quality

7QC 7个工具

1. Casuse and Effect Diagram 因果图
2. Flowcharts
3. Checkhsheets
4. Pareto Diagram
5. Histogram
6. Control Charts
7. Scatter Diagrams

9.Project Resource Management

Responsibility Assignment Matrix(RAM)
Responsible Accountable Consult Inform RACI

Resource plan includes (but not limited to):
• Identification of resources 需要什么资源
• Acquiring resources 如何获取资源
• Roles and responsibilities 责权如何定义

• Role
• Authority
• Responsibility
• Competency

• Project Organization Chart 组织结构图
• Project team resource management 打算如何管理，有什么规则和奖惩机制
• Training
• Team development 团队建设
• Resource control
• Recognition plan

9.4 Develop Team

团队建设
Colocation 把人放到一个物理位置上聚集起来，线下工作

Conflict: 两个人意见和观点不同，冲突没有对错，只有观点不同
好处，发现不同的观点，以不同的视角看问题
冲突无法避免，冲突没有对错

Recognition and reward

1. 个人认可才有效
2. 制定资源计划时确定奖惩

激励理论
Hygiene Factors

• Working condition
• Salary
• Personal life
• Relationship at work
• Security
• Status

保健因素：工作环境、工资激励作用只能维持一段时间，不能长久其中因素破坏掉，会有负面影响

Motivation Factors

• Responsibility
• Self actualization
• Professional growth
• Recognition

激励因素：责任，自我实现，成长，认可，长期激励

10. Project Communication Management

Some potential dimensions of communication activity:
• Internal – external 内部沟通，项目组之间。外部沟通
• Formal – Informal 正式沟通-非正式沟通 非正式沟通对于项目经理来讲更重要
• Vertical – Hierarchical: Upward, Downward, Horizontal 横向沟通，纵向沟通
• Official – unofficial 官方-非官方
• Written – oral 书面-口头
• Verbal –non-verbal 语言-非语言

高效沟通因素：

1. 了解沟通目标
2. 关注语言风格(不要太有进攻性，不要大写)
3. 选择合适的沟通媒介
4. 选择合适的沟通时间
5. 积极倾听
6. 关注非语言信息(肢体语言)
7. 沟通信息尽量简短

Effective meeting
➢Plan or prepare the meeting 会前准备

1. Set a time/schedule and determine the participants.
2. Have a clear purpose for each meeting & communicate it in the invitation.
3. Create the agenda and distribute it in advance.

➢Stick to the plan (discipline)会上执行

1. Begin on time, end on time.
2. Introduce the moderator and stipulate who will keep the minutes.
3. End every agenda with a summary and consensus of the participants.

➢Good follow-up 会后跟踪

1. Send the minutes showing the result along with the to do list.
2. Get feedback from the participants.
3. Monitor the status of all action items.

11. Project Stakeholder Management

12. Project Risk Management

➢Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if occurs, has an effect on at least one project objective.

风险两个特点：不确定性，一旦发生对项目目标产生影响

➢Risk management objectives:

1. increase the probability and impact of positive events (opportunities).
2. decrease the probability and impact of negative events (threat).

增加机会(正面事件)的可能性和影响。降低负面事件的概率和影响。

Terms & concepts:

1. Uncertainty: a lack of knowledge about an event that reduces confidence
2. Risk averse: someone who does not want to take risks. 风险厌恶：对风险无法忍受
3. Risk tolerances: area of risk that are acceptable/unacceptable. 对风险的容忍程度
4. Risk thresholds: the point at which a risk become unacceptable。风险阈值，从可接受到不可接受的转折点

Remember that in this area there is no activity in executing process group
在该阶段没有活动正在执行

Risk factor

1. The probability that it will occur 发生的概率
2. The range of possible outcome(impact) 发生后的影响程度
3. Expected timing (when) in the project life cycle 什么时候会发生
4. The anticipated frequency of risk event (how often) 预期会不会重复发生，如果重复发生，频率怎么样

Risk management planning

1. Risk identification
2. Risk Quantification
3. Risk Response

12.1 Plan Risk Management

➢Risk Categories

1. A standard list of risk categories can help to make sure areas of risk are not forgotten.
2. Companies and PMO should have standard list of risk categories to help identify risk.

➢Main type of Risk

1. Business – Risk of gain or loss
2. Pure (insurable) risk – Only a risk of loss (i.e. fire, theft, personal injury, etc)

warning

• Sources of risk = risk categories
• Risk categories may be structured into Risk Breakdown Structure
  (RBS)

➢Subset of project management plan. May includes:
✓ Risk strategy 风险处理策略
✓ Methodology 风险管理方法
✓ Roles & responsibilities 职责和权限
✓ Budgeting 花多少钱
✓ Timing 什么时间处理什么风险
✓ Risk categories. 风险分类
✓ Definition of risk probability and impact 风险发生的概率和影响程度
✓ Stakeholder tolerances 如何管理stakeholder的期望，如何沟通
✓ Reporting formats 汇报风险状态的形式
✓ Tracking 风险跟踪
✓ Probability and impact matrix (?)

Risk breakdown structure (RBS)
一个公司应该为风险管理规定一个类别划分
接口风险，管理风险，商业风险，也可根据交付物的类别来分

12.2 Identify Risks : How To Write a Risk Statement

Cause/Risk/Effect 风险语音要素：什么导致风险，导致什么风险，导致什么后果

“As a result of <definite cause>,
<uncertain event> may occur,
which would lead to <effect on objective(s)>”

An IF - THEN type of risk statement.
EXAMPLE: “IF the subcontractor does not deliver the SW at the required reliability level
THEN the product may not meet the performance specifications.”
A CONDITION - CONSEQUENCE risk statement. Given the “condition”,
there is a likelihood that “consequence” will occur.

1. Condition: a single phrase that identifies possible future problems, and describes current
   key circumstances, situations, etc., that are causing concern, doubt, anxiety, or
   uneasiness
2. Consequence: a single phrase or sentence that describes the key negative outcome(s) of the current circumstances
   EXAMPLE: “The subcontractor may not deliver the SW at the required reliability level and as a result the product may not meet the performance specifications.”

12.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 定性分析

Risk Register 风险登记册
After Indentify Risk process the output is initial entries into the risk
register. It includes:
✓ List of risk 风险列表
✓ List of POTENTIAL responses 应对措施
✓ Root causes of risks
✓ Updated risk categories 更新风险类别

Probability-Impact Matrix

▪ High Risk: Urgent Attention 红色严密监控
▪ Medium Risk: Regular Review 黄色没有那么紧急
▪ Low Risk: Monitor 绿色只需要监控一下

12.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 重大风险定量分析

Expected Monetary Value(EMV):

影响到额外追加资金，发生了有什么损失，成功了有多少收益

EMV=Probability*Impact

EMV for each possible outcome then adding them together in project RBS
Impact = costs or rewards of each logical path

E M V = ∑ [ P r o b a b i l i t y ∗ I m p a c t ] EMV=\sum[Probability*Impact] EMV=∑[Probability∗Impact]

所有风险求和

12.5 Plan Risk Responses

The process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to
reduce threats to project objectives.

目的：提高好的影响，降低不好的影响

Risk Treatment

1. Avoid the Risks 回避风险，如管理外包商风险很高，选择不外包，自制
2. Eliminate Source of the Risks 消灭风险源头，选择不需要管理就可以处理好的承包商
3. Transfer the Risks 转移风险，如买保险，用能支付的小成本代替不可承受的大风险，外包也是风险转移
4. Mitigate the Risks 采取预防性措施减少风险发生的概率/减少风险发生带来的伤害
5. Accept the Risks 接受风险，积极：做预案，消极：顺其自然

Risk treatment

1. 识别
2. 定性分析
3. 定量分析
4. 定义应对措施
5. 实施应对措施

12.6 Control Risks

风险分为两类，已经发现的，新的

13 Project Procurement Management 项目采购管理

Purchase 买商品等
Acquire 获取证书等

13.1 Plan Procurement Management

自制或采购分析：
技术要求高的，可能涉及到专利的自己做，不符合发展战略的买，买/租取决于用的时间长短
集中采购/分散采购：公司统一买/各个项目自己买
共性(打印机)集中买，个性东西分散采购，使用量大集中采购，使用量小分散采购
集中：便于使用专业采购人员，便于合同管理，便宜，慢，效率低，分散：贵，快，符合项目具体要求

合同类型
Fixed-Price contracts

固定总价合同：花多少钱买多少东西确定

Cost-reimbursable:

1. cost plus percentage of fee

按照花销百分比给钱，花的越多，报销越多，补偿越多，购买人风险最高，适用于scope不确定，购买人有良好的项目管理知识

2. cost plus fixed fee

除非范围改变，否则花费不变。适用场景，范围不确定

3. cost plus incentive fee

鼓励节省。适用范围不清楚，激励政策已定

Time and Material Contracts

每个单元价格已定，容易达成共识。适用范围不明确，缺乏项目管理技能

SOW：采购方案描述

13.2 Conduct Procurements

Proposal Evaluation

1. Weighting system
   Evaluate by weighting the source selection criteria
2. Independent estimate
   Estimation created in-house or with outside assistance
3. Screening system
   Eliminate sellers who do no meet minimum requirement 遍历供应商，把不符合的去掉
4. Past performance history

PM may be involved during negotiation to clarify requirement, protect
relationship.
Objective of negotiation:

1. Obtain fair and reasonable price 拿到一个好的价格
2. Develop good relationship with the seller 和供应商之间维持一个好的关系

Main items to negotiate: 付款周期，价格，个人有什么权限，有什么适用法律，技术/商业管理，合同

1. Scope
2. Schedule
3. Price & payment
4. Responsibilities
5. Authority
6. Applicable law
7. Technical & business management approaches
8. Contract financing
   

本文标签： ProjectManagement